Climatic patterns
From WardleyPedia
Climatic patterns are rules of the game. These patterns apply across contexts, regardless of user choice.
Contents
- 1 Components
- 1.1 Everything evolves through supply and demand competition
- 1.2 No single method fits all
- 1.3 Rates of evolution can vary by ecosystem
- 1.4 Components can co-evolve
- 1.5 Characteristics change as component evolve
- 1.6 Evolution consists of multiple waves
- 1.7 No choice over evolution
- 1.8 Commoditisation <> Centralization
- 2 Financial
- 2.1 Higher order systems create new sources of value
- 2.2 Future value is inversely proportional to the certainty we have over it
- 2.3 Efficiency does not mean a reduced spend
- 2.4 Evolution to higher order systems results in increasing local order and energy consumption
- 2.5 Capital flows to new areas of value
- 2.6 Creative Destruction
- 3 Speed
- 3.1 Efficiency enables innovation
- 3.2 Shifts from product to utility tend to demonstrate a punctuated equilibrium
- 3.3 Evolution of communication mechanisms can increase the speed of evolution overall and the diffusion of a single example
- 3.4 Increased stability of lower order systems increases agility & speed of re-combination
- 3.5 Change is not always linear
- 4 Inertia
- 5 Competitors
- 6 Prediction
- 6.1 Not everything is random
- 6.2 You cannot measure evolution over time or adoption, you need to embrace uncertainty
- 6.3 Economy has cycles
- 6.4 The less evolved something is, then the more uncertain it becomes
- 6.5 Two different forms of disruption
- 6.6 "War" (point of industrialization) causes organizations to evolve
- 7 References
Components
Everything evolves through supply and demand competition
From chapter 11 in the book:
If the conditions exist that a person or groups of people will strive to gain some form of advantage or control over others due to a constraint (i.e. a limitation of a resource or time or money or people) then we have competition. If competition exists then the components effected will evolve until they become industrialised. This impacts everything from activities (what we do), practices (how we do something), data (how we measure something) to knowledge (how we understand something). The map is never static but dynamic. It's also important to understand that if competition exists then you will be in conflict with others. Sometimes the best way of resolving this is through coopetition (i.e. cooperative competition) and building alliances. In other cases, depending upon the context, then you have to fight even to the point of a game of last man standing. In any significant landscape then you're likely to find yourself building alliances on one part of the map whilst at the same time fighting other companies in another and withdrawing from a third. However as the components on your map evolve then your former allies can become foes and vice versa. Microsoft and open source used to be mortal enemies, they're now often found to be best buddies. To manage such a dynamic and fluid environment then you're going to need to be able to observe it.[1]
Wardley's 2013 blog post: Everything Evolves
No single method fits all
Rates of evolution can vary by ecosystem
Components can co-evolve
Characteristics change as component evolve
Evolution consists of multiple waves
From chapter 11 in the book:
Evolution consists of many instances of the same act e.g. a phone, a better phone and an even better phone. Every instance of an evolving act will diffuse through its applicable market. Those markets will change as the act evolves i.e. the market for first custom built phones is not the same as market for more industrialised phones. The process of evolution can include sustaining, incremental and discontinuous change e.g. product to product improvements or product to product substitution. This path is not smooth, it is not linear, it has many branches and dead ends (e.g. phones that failed). Furthermore the actions of individual players are unpredictable. Hence you can know the direction (e.g. phones will industrialise over time) but not the steps and the exact path taken (this phone will be more successful than that phone) until you have walked it.[2]
No choice over evolution
Commoditisation <> Centralization
Financial
Higher order systems create new sources of value
Future value is inversely proportional to the certainty we have over it
Efficiency does not mean a reduced spend
Evolution to higher order systems results in increasing local order and energy consumption
Capital flows to new areas of value
Creative Destruction
Speed
Efficiency enables innovation
Shifts from product to utility tend to demonstrate a punctuated equilibrium
Evolution of communication mechanisms can increase the speed of evolution overall and the diffusion of a single example
Increased stability of lower order systems increases agility & speed of re-combination
Change is not always linear
Discontinuous and exponential change exists
Inertia
Success breeds inertia
Inertia can kill an organization
Inertia increases the more successful the pas model is
Competitors
Competitors actions will change the game
Most competitors have poor situational awareness
Prediction
Not everything is random
In some situations, you can predict the probability of what will happen, but not when. In other situations you can reliably predict when something will happen, but not exactly what.