Climatic patterns

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Wardly Climatic Patterns.png

Climatic patterns are rules of the game. These patterns apply across contexts, regardless of user choice.



Everything evolves through supply and demand competition

From chapter 11 in the book:

If the conditions exist that a person or groups of people will strive to gain some form of advantage or control over others due to a constraint (i.e. a limitation of a resource or time or money or people) then we have competition. If competition exists then the components effected will evolve until they become industrialised. This impacts everything from activities (what we do), practices (how we do something), data (how we measure something) to knowledge (how we understand something). The map is never static but dynamic.  It's also important to understand that if competition exists then you will be in conflict with others. Sometimes the best way of resolving this is through coopetition (i.e. cooperative competition) and building alliances. In other cases, depending upon the context, then you have to fight even to the point of a game of last man standing. In any significant landscape then you're likely to find yourself building alliances on one part of the map whilst at the same time fighting other companies in another and withdrawing from a third. However as the components on your map evolve then your former allies can become foes and vice versa. Microsoft and open source used to be mortal enemies, they're now often found to be best buddies. To manage such a dynamic and fluid environment then you're going to need to be able to observe it.[1]

Wardley's 2013 blog post: Everything Evolves

Evolution of Activity Practices and Data.png

Coevolution of Practice and Activity.png

No single method fits all

Rates of evolution can vary by ecosystem

Components can co-evolve

Characteristics change as component evolve

Evolution consists of multiple waves

From chapter 11 in the book:

Evolution consists of many instances of the same act e.g. a phone, a better phone and an even better phone. Every instance of an evolving act will diffuse through its applicable market. Those markets will change as the act evolves i.e. the market for first custom built phones is not the same as market for more industrialised phones. The process of evolution can include sustaining, incremental and discontinuous change e.g. product to product improvements or product to product substitution. This path is not smooth, it is not linear, it has many branches and dead ends (e.g. phones that failed). Furthermore the actions of individual players are unpredictable. Hence you can know the direction (e.g. phones will industrialise over time) but not the steps and the exact path taken (this phone will be more successful than that phone) until you have walked it.[2]

No choice over evolution

Red Queen

From chapter 11 in the book:

In a competing ecosystem then the pressure for adoption of a successful change increases as more adopt the change. This is known as the "Red Queen" effect i.e. you have to continuously adapt in order to keep still (in terms of relative position to others). The one thing that standing still will guarantee is that you will be overtaken. It has a secondary effect which is by adaptation then competitors limit the growth of a single company and prevent a run away process.[3]

Commoditisation <> Centralization


Higher order systems create new sources of value

Future value is inversely proportional to the certainty we have over it

Efficiency does not mean a reduced spend

Jevon's Paradox

Evolution to higher order systems results in increasing local order and energy consumption

Capital flows to new areas of value

Creative Destruction

Joseph Schumpeter


Efficiency enables innovation

Shifts from product to utility tend to demonstrate a punctuated equilibrium

Evolution of communication mechanisms can increase the speed of evolution overall and the diffusion of a single example

Increased stability of lower order systems increases agility & speed of re-combination

Change is not always linear

Discontinuous and exponential change exists


Success breeds inertia

Inertia can kill an organization

Inertia increases the more successful the pas model is


Competitors actions will change the game

Most competitors have poor situational awareness


Not everything is random

In some situations, you can predict the probability of what will happen, but not when. In other situations you can reliably predict when something will happen, but not exactly what.

You cannot measure evolution over time or adoption, you need to embrace uncertainty

From chapter 11 in the book:

The only consistent mechanism I've found for measuring evolution is ubiquity and certainty i.e. how well understood, complete and / or fit something is for the environment.[4]

Economy has cycles

Peace, war, and wonder

The less evolved something is, then the more uncertain it becomes

From chapter 11 in the book:

By definition, the novel and new are more uncertain than industrialised components such as commodities and utilities.  The uncharted space consists of the unknown i.e. "Ere be dragons".[5]

Two different forms of disruption


"War" (point of industrialization) causes organizations to evolve